Showing posts with label Porfirio Lobo Sosa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Porfirio Lobo Sosa. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
The Puppet Master Pulls The Strings
If there was any doubt that the United States is orchestrating the political choreography going on in Honduras right now, it should be put to rest. Arturo Valenzuela, representing the United States at Porfirio Lobo Sosa's inauguration, told the press today that the United States has not made any decision about restoring aid to Honduras yet. "We haven't made any determinations yet," said Valenzuela. "The new president of Honduras has taken the country in the right direction," Valenzuela added after Lobo Sosa talked both about establishing a government of reconciliation, and establishing a truth commission in his first 100 days in office, both of which Valenzuela called "essential elements" to the restoration of democratic order in Honduras. "Things are moving pretty much in the right direction."
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Lobo Will Accompany Zelaya to Airport
The Spanish website ABC reported late this afternoon that Porfirio Lobo Sosa will accompany Manuel Zelaya Rosales from the Brazilian Embassy to Toncontin International airport in Tegucigalpa after Lobo Sosa's inauguration. Lobo Sosa will be accompanied by President Fernandez of the Dominican Republic, and President Colom of Guatemala. Lobo Sosa said:
"Can you imagine beginning a government with a president in an embassy? Locked in there? Its not right; its not dignified for a president."
Lobo Sosa also assured the press that the wording on the safe-conduct had been vetted by public prosecutor and two justices of the supreme court, and that it had been made known to the new Congress.
"Can you imagine beginning a government with a president in an embassy? Locked in there? Its not right; its not dignified for a president."
Lobo Sosa also assured the press that the wording on the safe-conduct had been vetted by public prosecutor and two justices of the supreme court, and that it had been made known to the new Congress.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
The State Department Muddies The Waters
Yesterday Phillip Crowley said in the daily press briefing:
"In Honduras, we welcome de facto leader Micheletti’s decision to step down and see that as a positive step that will advance the process of national reconciliation in Honduras. And we look forward to working with the government of President-elect Lobo and note that important work remains to be done to reestablish democratic and constitutional order in Honduras, and we continue to – we will work with the new government in Honduras on full implementation of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accords."
First some context. This was part of a prepared statement Crowley read at the start of the press briefing, not an ad-libbed response to a question.
As the gentle reader will already know from our previous post on what Micheletti said in his announcement the other day, he did not step down or otherwise remove himself from power; he merely has removed himself from the public eye.
As if on cue, Micheletti popped up yesterday after the State Department statement hit the Honduran papers to reiterate he was still in control of the de facto government.
So why would the State Department make a statement perpetuating the inaccurate portrayal of Micheletti's actions? After all, major US newspapers quickly corrected their language to ensure readers knew Micheletti had not resigned. Are they just using sloppy language to describe what Micheletti's position is?
I think we can rule out the use of sloppy language. This was a written statement, not an answer to a question made in passing. Professional diplomats need to use language which conveys all the nuances of their position. The speaker, Phillip Crowley, who is Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, is a professional. As the public voice of the State Department, he would use precise language in formal statements to the press.
Likewise I believe we can rule out shoddy translation. In November, the State Department used a less misleading translation of the same words. Robert Wood, deputy department spokesman, in speaking about Micheletti's last "leave of absence" (his words) before the November election, was clear that the State Department understood the nature of Micheletti's statement. At the time the State Department made positive noises about it.
Wood said of that November action by Micheletti:
"Well, as I think many of you are aware, there was a statement made last night by Mr. Micheletti about taking a leave of absence. And we welcome that he is going to take a leave of absence and expect its prompt implementation."
Micheletti used the same language to describe the present "leave of absence" as the last one, so presumably the State Department fully comprehends what it entails, especially since they asked him to do it the first time, in November.
So why say that Micheletti "stepped down" when he did not? This advances the spin the State Department is trying to create to make it more acceptable for them to carry out their recognition of Porfirio Lobo Sosa as legitimate president of Honduras and return to the status quo, resuming US AID aid, and encouraging other governments and international lending institutions to resume aid and lending to Honduras.
In essence, the State Department is putting the best face on a bad situation. And Micheletti is not playing along.
The majority of world governments have made it a condition of recognition that Lobo Sosa not receive power from the illegitimate and unrecognized government of Roberto Micheletti.
With the statement that began this post, the State Department is creating confusion about whether that condition has been met. Crowley, by describing Micheletti's move as "stepping down", suggests that a condition the international community has insisted on for recognizing the new government in Honduras has been met, when it has not.
"In Honduras, we welcome de facto leader Micheletti’s decision to step down and see that as a positive step that will advance the process of national reconciliation in Honduras. And we look forward to working with the government of President-elect Lobo and note that important work remains to be done to reestablish democratic and constitutional order in Honduras, and we continue to – we will work with the new government in Honduras on full implementation of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accords."
First some context. This was part of a prepared statement Crowley read at the start of the press briefing, not an ad-libbed response to a question.
As the gentle reader will already know from our previous post on what Micheletti said in his announcement the other day, he did not step down or otherwise remove himself from power; he merely has removed himself from the public eye.
As if on cue, Micheletti popped up yesterday after the State Department statement hit the Honduran papers to reiterate he was still in control of the de facto government.
So why would the State Department make a statement perpetuating the inaccurate portrayal of Micheletti's actions? After all, major US newspapers quickly corrected their language to ensure readers knew Micheletti had not resigned. Are they just using sloppy language to describe what Micheletti's position is?
I think we can rule out the use of sloppy language. This was a written statement, not an answer to a question made in passing. Professional diplomats need to use language which conveys all the nuances of their position. The speaker, Phillip Crowley, who is Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, is a professional. As the public voice of the State Department, he would use precise language in formal statements to the press.
Likewise I believe we can rule out shoddy translation. In November, the State Department used a less misleading translation of the same words. Robert Wood, deputy department spokesman, in speaking about Micheletti's last "leave of absence" (his words) before the November election, was clear that the State Department understood the nature of Micheletti's statement. At the time the State Department made positive noises about it.
Wood said of that November action by Micheletti:
"Well, as I think many of you are aware, there was a statement made last night by Mr. Micheletti about taking a leave of absence. And we welcome that he is going to take a leave of absence and expect its prompt implementation."
Micheletti used the same language to describe the present "leave of absence" as the last one, so presumably the State Department fully comprehends what it entails, especially since they asked him to do it the first time, in November.
So why say that Micheletti "stepped down" when he did not? This advances the spin the State Department is trying to create to make it more acceptable for them to carry out their recognition of Porfirio Lobo Sosa as legitimate president of Honduras and return to the status quo, resuming US AID aid, and encouraging other governments and international lending institutions to resume aid and lending to Honduras.
In essence, the State Department is putting the best face on a bad situation. And Micheletti is not playing along.
The majority of world governments have made it a condition of recognition that Lobo Sosa not receive power from the illegitimate and unrecognized government of Roberto Micheletti.
With the statement that began this post, the State Department is creating confusion about whether that condition has been met. Crowley, by describing Micheletti's move as "stepping down", suggests that a condition the international community has insisted on for recognizing the new government in Honduras has been met, when it has not.
Friday, January 22, 2010
The Honduran Resistance Will Continue
In the weeks since the November election, the English language press has gone silent about the Honduran resistance. But that does not mean the Honduran resistance has disappeared. During a march in Tegucigalpa at the beginning of this month, Tiempo reported, some speakers called for the Frente to form a political movement or alternate political party. But this is not the main goal of the Resistance movement.
Inside Costa Rica reports that the National Resistance Front has called for marches on January 27 to protest the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo Sosa, whose projected administration is characterized as "the continuation of the dictatorship of the oligarchy." Anyone who was hoping that the inauguration of Lobo Sosa would end Honduran dissent will obviously find themselves disappointed.
The Frente stated that the goal of demonstrations is to "insist on the demand of a national constituent assembly, popular and democratic, to restore Honduras." This demand will not go away.
As in previous demonstrations in Tegucigalpa, the beginning point for the planned march there January 27 will be the Universidad Nacional Pedagogica. Marchers will apparently face increased security according to reports in pro-coup El Heraldo:
What kinds of operations are planned for the barrios and colonias of Tegucigalpa-- far from the site of the ceremonial transfer of power, but the heart of the resistance that continued after the de facto regime imposed repeated curfews? what makes it necessary to deploy soldiers and anti-riot police in ten Honduran cities? If the new government were really so universally appreciated, what would be the need for continued repressive militarization?
Needless to say, confrontations with peaceful protestors by military and riot police would mar the attempt to portray the government of Lobo Sosa as the solution to the destruction of civil liberties by the de facto regime.
The decision on continued strategy, starting with the planned marches, was taken by the leaders of the Resistance last weekend. While El Heraldo would like to dismiss the Resistance marches as the work of "zelayistas", the National Resistance Front cannot be reduced to the supporters of any current political party or faction within one.
As reported by Prensa Latina, more than 80 leaders of the resistance, including Juan Barahona, Carlos H. Reyes, Rafael Alegría, Bertha Cáceres, and Carlos Eduardo Reina, conferred in Siguatepeque, a small city located on the main highway between Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula. They reaffirmed the need to resist division along traditional lines of party loyalty, which have dominated Honduran politics.
While much of the English-language press has remained focused on the drama of negotiating a dignified exit for President Zelaya, and on the attempts to distance Lobo Sosa from Micheletti, it is arguable that what will ultimately be most significant for the possibility of effective political transformation in Honduras will be what happens with the Resistance.
On January 27, we will see whether the Resistance mobilizes a sufficiently visible presence to ensure that international media have to take note.
Inside Costa Rica reports that the National Resistance Front has called for marches on January 27 to protest the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo Sosa, whose projected administration is characterized as "the continuation of the dictatorship of the oligarchy." Anyone who was hoping that the inauguration of Lobo Sosa would end Honduran dissent will obviously find themselves disappointed.
The Frente stated that the goal of demonstrations is to "insist on the demand of a national constituent assembly, popular and democratic, to restore Honduras." This demand will not go away.
As in previous demonstrations in Tegucigalpa, the beginning point for the planned march there January 27 will be the Universidad Nacional Pedagogica. Marchers will apparently face increased security according to reports in pro-coup El Heraldo:
Álvarez affirmed that there will be strong security measures, with police and military agents, in ten cities of Honduras.This presumably includes San Pedro Sula, the second-largest city in Honduras, site of a second march called for by the Resistance. Another report published by Heraldo, after describing security at the stadium where the inauguration will take place, commented that
(The Law referred to, for those who do not remember, was passed by the de facto regime in late October to restrict freedom of assembly that is guaranteed in the Honduran Constitution.)It is planned to develop operations in the barrios and colonias of the capital, as well as in all the cities of the country. The Armed Forces have placed at the disposal more than 2700 members just for the capital. An equal number is that of the police.
Special operations will be developed beginning in the next hours on all the frontiers of the country.
In respect to the demonstrations, such as that programmed by the zelayists for the 27th of January, the police authorities reminded that, based on the Law of Co-existence, they should be notified with 24 hours of advance notice of the realization of the same and their trajectory.
What kinds of operations are planned for the barrios and colonias of Tegucigalpa-- far from the site of the ceremonial transfer of power, but the heart of the resistance that continued after the de facto regime imposed repeated curfews? what makes it necessary to deploy soldiers and anti-riot police in ten Honduran cities? If the new government were really so universally appreciated, what would be the need for continued repressive militarization?
Needless to say, confrontations with peaceful protestors by military and riot police would mar the attempt to portray the government of Lobo Sosa as the solution to the destruction of civil liberties by the de facto regime.
The decision on continued strategy, starting with the planned marches, was taken by the leaders of the Resistance last weekend. While El Heraldo would like to dismiss the Resistance marches as the work of "zelayistas", the National Resistance Front cannot be reduced to the supporters of any current political party or faction within one.
As reported by Prensa Latina, more than 80 leaders of the resistance, including Juan Barahona, Carlos H. Reyes, Rafael Alegría, Bertha Cáceres, and Carlos Eduardo Reina, conferred in Siguatepeque, a small city located on the main highway between Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula. They reaffirmed the need to resist division along traditional lines of party loyalty, which have dominated Honduran politics.
While much of the English-language press has remained focused on the drama of negotiating a dignified exit for President Zelaya, and on the attempts to distance Lobo Sosa from Micheletti, it is arguable that what will ultimately be most significant for the possibility of effective political transformation in Honduras will be what happens with the Resistance.
On January 27, we will see whether the Resistance mobilizes a sufficiently visible presence to ensure that international media have to take note.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Lobo Promises Zelaya Safe Conduct
President-elect Porfirio Lobo Sosa promised today that once inaugurated, he would sign a safe conduct that allowed Manuel Zelaya, his family, and close followers still inside the Brazilian embassy to journey to the Dominican Republic as "distinguished guests", reports El Universal of Mexico. Lobo Sosa and Dominican President Leonel Fernandez signed an accord today agreeing to the safe conduct for Zelaya.
The Honduran online paper, Processo Digital published the full text of the accord. In it Lobo Sosa agrees to form a unity government of national reconciliation, made up of members of the political parties; he agrees to immediately upon taking office sign a safe conduct for Zelaya and his family so that they might have freedom of movement; he agrees to respect human rights and allow Hondurans to enjoy public liberty; and he agrees to allow Zelaya, his family, and inner circle of followers to leave for the Dominican Republic as guests of that country. In exchange, the Dominican Republic's President, Leonel Fernandez, promises to lobby for the removal of sanctions against Honduras placed by the international community and to work to normalize relations with Honduras.
Update 2:00 pm PST: When asked about it moments ago on Radio Globo, Rasel Tomé said he and President Zelaya knew nothing about the agreement.
Update 5:45 pm PST: Dominican President Leonel Fernandez announced he will attend the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo Sosa on January 27 and return to the Dominican Republic with Manuel Zelaya and his family and inner circle, La Tribuna reported today in its Minute by Minute column. Telesur reported earlier this afternoon that Manuel Zelaya, once familiar with the accord that Lobo Sosa had signed today in the Dominican Republic, said this was a good move, that Lobo Sosa was distancing himself from the de facto government. Zelaya may travel as he wishes after reaching the Dominican Republic.
The Honduran online paper, Processo Digital published the full text of the accord. In it Lobo Sosa agrees to form a unity government of national reconciliation, made up of members of the political parties; he agrees to immediately upon taking office sign a safe conduct for Zelaya and his family so that they might have freedom of movement; he agrees to respect human rights and allow Hondurans to enjoy public liberty; and he agrees to allow Zelaya, his family, and inner circle of followers to leave for the Dominican Republic as guests of that country. In exchange, the Dominican Republic's President, Leonel Fernandez, promises to lobby for the removal of sanctions against Honduras placed by the international community and to work to normalize relations with Honduras.
Update 2:00 pm PST: When asked about it moments ago on Radio Globo, Rasel Tomé said he and President Zelaya knew nothing about the agreement.
Update 5:45 pm PST: Dominican President Leonel Fernandez announced he will attend the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo Sosa on January 27 and return to the Dominican Republic with Manuel Zelaya and his family and inner circle, La Tribuna reported today in its Minute by Minute column. Telesur reported earlier this afternoon that Manuel Zelaya, once familiar with the accord that Lobo Sosa had signed today in the Dominican Republic, said this was a good move, that Lobo Sosa was distancing himself from the de facto government. Zelaya may travel as he wishes after reaching the Dominican Republic.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Micheletti has no intention of leaving the stage
As we noted in the previous post, Roberto Micheletti has now been given an extra-constitutional lifetime appointment as congress member. This brings with it a shiny gold medal, as well as income, without the strain of actually being elected. What else it brings remains to be seen.
Not in question now, though, is whether Micheletti will recede from view in order to allow international powers to legitimate the Porfirio Lobo government. Indeed, Micheletti thinks perhaps he should speak to the congress on January 25.
As it turns out, he has a lot to say.
An article published today by Proceso Digital reporting remarks Micheletti made on Canal 10 quotes him as accusing Oscar Arias of being "disrespectful" of Honduras:
Micheletti assured the listening public that he would not even ask for a special leave of absence for the period of the inauguration, as that, he says, would violate the constitution:
Micheletti also explained that it was Jose Miguel Insulza's fault that things got chilly with the OAS:
Micheletti was happy to give a shout out to his friends in need:
And of course, he thanked the governments of Colombia and Panama, "who when we resorted to ask their advice never denied us, they were an important support and I thank Panama and its president for the petition made in the OAS so that our country can return to that regional venue".
And finally, Micheletti is willing to kiss and make up with the US:
Not in question now, though, is whether Micheletti will recede from view in order to allow international powers to legitimate the Porfirio Lobo government. Indeed, Micheletti thinks perhaps he should speak to the congress on January 25.
As it turns out, he has a lot to say.
An article published today by Proceso Digital reporting remarks Micheletti made on Canal 10 quotes him as accusing Oscar Arias of being "disrespectful" of Honduras:
each time that he speaks it is to offend my country, it seems that he has a complex to believe that we are a slavish nation where anyone that wants can order us around; we Hondurans are not his slavesMicheletti reportedly said.
Micheletti assured the listening public that he would not even ask for a special leave of absence for the period of the inauguration, as that, he says, would violate the constitution:
I am not going to step aside, nor am I going to ask permission to step aside temporarily, that is not possible because that would be to violate the constitution, I will do what I have announced previously, I will watch the passage of power from the Casa de Gobierno and in the moment in which Porfirio Lobo is imposed as president, I will get up and go to my house with my family.Micheletti said that he intends to participate in the first session of the new congress on January 25: there I will give my report on the situation of the country because it is a constitutional duty.
Micheletti also explained that it was Jose Miguel Insulza's fault that things got chilly with the OAS:
he committed to respect the will of the Hondurans, he promised that this matter (the political crisis) was going to be resolved by the Hondurans and he would support that, but when he returned with the chancellors to the country, he came simply to try to impose the idea that we should return Zelaya to power, and that we could not accept because it was a falsehood that he had told us in our private meetingLobo Sosa should be gratified to hear that Micheletti does support his intention to renew international relations because in Micheletti's opinion "we should support it and respect it because the space of Honduras has to be opened to the world".
Not that Micheletti has in mind the same thing you or I might imagine. He is talking about economic ties with China, and other potential sources of employment. Apparently, something has caused the economic situation to deteriorate over the last six months. So Pepe has his work cut out for him.
Micheletti was happy to give a shout out to his friends in need:
He said that on the level of countries he is gratified with the aid given during the crisis by nations like Taiwan, Japan and the same United States, which did not stop aiding the nation in the projects already underway. Despite the restrictions given by their governments, the cooperation in projects under execution never stopped and for this he had to thank them, he noted.Indeed. No sanctions here, folks, move along, nothing to see...
And of course, he thanked the governments of Colombia and Panama, "who when we resorted to ask their advice never denied us, they were an important support and I thank Panama and its president for the petition made in the OAS so that our country can return to that regional venue".
And finally, Micheletti is willing to kiss and make up with the US:
they have committed many errors, but the US people deserve our affection and respect. The clauses for which they take away visas, I don't meet those requirements, and if they determine that some day they are going to return it to me, congratulations, because I have not committed any crime nor am I delinquent.Such a gentle nature. So wronged, and yet so forgiving.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Lopez Contreras: US Will Resume Aid
The Foreign Minister of the de facto government, Carlos Lopez Contreras, who yesterday assured us that the conversation between Craig Kelly and Roberto Micheletti did not touch on Micheletti resigning, today assures us that Kelly told Micheletti that US aid to Honduras would resume with the inauguration of Lobo Sosa, unconditionally. This contradicts the public statements of Lobo Sosa, who said that Kelly wanted Micheletti to resign by January 15 to facilitate the formation of a government of reconciliation, a requirement of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord. Lopez Contreras said Micheletti's resignation was not discussed, and that the purpose of the meeting was for Kelly to tell Micheletti that the US would accept the results of the November election and resume aid to Honduras after Lobo Sosa's inauguration. Kelly left Honduras yesterday without making any public statements about his mission, or its results.
Today the US Embassy in Honduras put out a press release which reads in part:
"Mr. Kelly congratulated "Pepe" Lobo for his election and expressed the will of the United States to work with the new government of President Lobo to help confront the challenges once the Accord has been implemented....Mr. Kelly observed that the punctual implementation of the pending elements of the Accord are the best way to restore the position of Honduras with the international community."
Today the US Embassy in Honduras put out a press release which reads in part:
"Mr. Kelly congratulated "Pepe" Lobo for his election and expressed the will of the United States to work with the new government of President Lobo to help confront the challenges once the Accord has been implemented....Mr. Kelly observed that the punctual implementation of the pending elements of the Accord are the best way to restore the position of Honduras with the international community."
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Micheletti Will Not Resign
Roberto Micheletti announced this morning that he will not resign by January 15 as Craig Kelly came to request. Despite the lure of a promise of millions of dollars in aid and restoration of his US visa, La Prensa reports Micheletti declined. He did concede he will not attend Porfirio Lobo Sosa's investiture, and will stay home and watch it on television.
Traveling so only short reports today.
Traveling so only short reports today.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Craig Kelly in Tegucigalpa
Tiempo reports that Craig Kelly arrived in Tegucigalpa at mid-day to meet at 4 pm with US Ambassador Hugo Llorens and Manuel Zelaya. According to the press, he will also meet with Roberto Micheletti at 10 am tomorrow morning. The Honduran online newspaper, Proceso Digital, reports that Kelly will also meet with Porfirio Lobo Sosa today. This is Kelly's fourth visit to Tegucigalpa since the coup.
Update 1:30 pm PDT: Phillip Crowley announced this afternoon that Kelly's visit is because the US is "weighing" its decisions about future relations with Honduras. Kelly's mission is to facilitate the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord compliance. Crowley told the press that Kelly was sent to "communicate clearly to the diverse sectors that there are still things to be done." Crowley indicated that the US needs to make some decisions about the nature of its relations with Honduras and future assistance. No statement on the State Department website yet.
Update 1:30 pm PDT: Phillip Crowley announced this afternoon that Kelly's visit is because the US is "weighing" its decisions about future relations with Honduras. Kelly's mission is to facilitate the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord compliance. Crowley told the press that Kelly was sent to "communicate clearly to the diverse sectors that there are still things to be done." Crowley indicated that the US needs to make some decisions about the nature of its relations with Honduras and future assistance. No statement on the State Department website yet.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Spain Gives Lobo An Ultimatum
EFE reported this morning that Spain has adopted a hard line concerning the formation of Poririo Lobo Sosa's administration. Spokesmen for the Zapatero government said yesterday that if Micheletti is still in power, or if there are other leaders who supported the overthrow of Zelaya in power, the Spanish government will not recognize the government of Porfirio Lobo Sosa.
The spokesperson expressed the Zapatero government's confidence that when Lobo Sosa takes power on January 27, Micheletti will have retired, and will not pass power to Lobo Sosa. The spokesperson added that recognition would come because "they will erase all the traces of the golpistas, because they will form a government of reconciliation, and they will look for a dignified exit for Zelaya," whom Spain continues to recognize as the constitutional president of Honduras. The Spanish ambassador's return to Honduras depends on what happens on January 27.
This creates a significant problem for Lobo Sosa. Among Lobo's supporters are many considered responsible for backing the coup, like Camilo Atala Faraj, owner of the Grupo Ficohsa, through which much golpista government cash has flowed out into private hands, and ex president Ricardo Maduro, and National Party President, and Mayor of Tegucigalapa, Ricardo Alvarez. Camilo Atala, through his membership in CEAL, is said to have coordinated the contracts by Honduran businessmen with lobbyists in the United States to lobby about the "consolidation of the democratic transition" in Honduras.
One of Lobo Sosa's many gatherings before Christmas was with a group of these advisors, including Camilo Atala. Look for Lobo Sosa to let these "advisors" move into the background, and place their lesser known supporters in Lobo's inner circle and cabinet.
The spokesperson expressed the Zapatero government's confidence that when Lobo Sosa takes power on January 27, Micheletti will have retired, and will not pass power to Lobo Sosa. The spokesperson added that recognition would come because "they will erase all the traces of the golpistas, because they will form a government of reconciliation, and they will look for a dignified exit for Zelaya," whom Spain continues to recognize as the constitutional president of Honduras. The Spanish ambassador's return to Honduras depends on what happens on January 27.
This creates a significant problem for Lobo Sosa. Among Lobo's supporters are many considered responsible for backing the coup, like Camilo Atala Faraj, owner of the Grupo Ficohsa, through which much golpista government cash has flowed out into private hands, and ex president Ricardo Maduro, and National Party President, and Mayor of Tegucigalapa, Ricardo Alvarez. Camilo Atala, through his membership in CEAL, is said to have coordinated the contracts by Honduran businessmen with lobbyists in the United States to lobby about the "consolidation of the democratic transition" in Honduras.
One of Lobo Sosa's many gatherings before Christmas was with a group of these advisors, including Camilo Atala. Look for Lobo Sosa to let these "advisors" move into the background, and place their lesser known supporters in Lobo's inner circle and cabinet.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Lobo "WIlling" To Talk To Zelaya
Porfirio Lobo Sosa stated today that he was willing to talk to Manuel Zelaya in the Dominican Republic, or in the Brazilian embassy, or wherever, in search of a solution to the political crisis in Honduras.
All of this adds up to little room to maneuver for Lobo Sosa. He's fairly powerless in the current situation, and will not have much more power come January 27. The time in which he could have acted was prior to the November elections, when his leadership towards a resolution of this problem would have meant something, but that would have put his election at risk. Now his only choice is to be a powerless president, as his statements and actions continue to demonstrate. He's stuck with whatever shell of an economy Micheletti leaves him, without a guarantee of international recognition beyond a few countries, a weak position as president-elect and likely an even weaker president.
Update 9:15 AM PDT: Lobo Sosa made it clear this morning that his only roll is to "suggest" what needs to happen, not to make it happen.
"There is the total and absolute will to talk, but what is lacking is to see a way that the actual authorities [the de facto government] aid and facilitate, in what is possible....the exit of Manuel Zelaya so that I can go talk with him wherever, I have no problem....but we leave it to the authorities to resolve...the administrative decision on how he will leave is not in my hands."He later added:
"The leaving of ex-President Zelaya is not in my hands; this depends on the Honduran authorities, and as is logical, I will do all that I can to the extent that I can to influence so that they do what most suits the national interest....I am the president of the Hondurans, that they elected the last Sunday in November, and I have to be careful to not act irresponsibly."Lobo will do "what he can" but no promises since everything depends on the de facto government. Remember first that Lobo Sosa supports the coup, and therefore acknowledges the legitimacy of the de facto government, however much it stands in his way. Micheletti has little reason to cooperate with Lobo Sosa; they are of different political parties. Lobo's own Nationalist Party introduced the resolution in Congress to reaffirm the Congressional decree where Congress removed Zelaya from office, without the constitutional authority to do so; the coup redux if you will. He can call for those things that he has that will make international recognition possible, but he cannot make them happen, even within his own party.
All of this adds up to little room to maneuver for Lobo Sosa. He's fairly powerless in the current situation, and will not have much more power come January 27. The time in which he could have acted was prior to the November elections, when his leadership towards a resolution of this problem would have meant something, but that would have put his election at risk. Now his only choice is to be a powerless president, as his statements and actions continue to demonstrate. He's stuck with whatever shell of an economy Micheletti leaves him, without a guarantee of international recognition beyond a few countries, a weak position as president-elect and likely an even weaker president.
Update 9:15 AM PDT: Lobo Sosa made it clear this morning that his only roll is to "suggest" what needs to happen, not to make it happen.
"The only thing that remains for me is to suggest or ask that they facilitate the talk that is important for Honduras, to end this thing once and for all, to not begin this new government trapped in this problem."Dear Porfirio Lobo Sosa, do you really think Micheletti is going to make it happen, to resolve the problem for you? I don't.
Dominican Meeting Cancelled
Porfirio Lobo Sosa and Manuel Zelaya Rosales will not meet in Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic on Monday. Both Zelaya and Fernandez pronounced the effort dead. Fernandez said the de facto government of Roberto Micheletti placed too many obstacles to obtaining the safe conduct for Zelaya. The Dominican government issued a communique which read in part:
Still, the de facto government announced yesterday that Zelaya was free to seek "territorial political asylum" but that it could not be in any Central American country, and he would first have to sign a piece of paper acknowledging, among other things, that Congress had removed him from office. Milton Mateo, a spokesperson for the de facto Foreign Minister, Carlos Lopez Contreras, told the AP that:
Peruvian President Alain Garcia immediately suggested that Lobo meet with Zelaya in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa.
In a surprise move, Ricardo Maduro, former president of Honduras, called on Congress to declare a general amnesty for political crimes, including those committed by Zelaya and Micheletti.
"The willingness to begin dialogue this week was reiterated by President Fernandez, as much as by Zelaya and the candidate elect, but the de facto government insists on conditioning Zelaya's leaving the Brazilian Embassy as political asylum."Yesterday, a spokesperson for Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom, announced that if the de facto government issued a safe conduct for Zelaya to meet with Lobo, then Guatemala, which up to now has rejected the elections in Honduras, would recognize Lobo Sosa as "the legitimate president of Honduras." The spokesperson alluded to the possibility that other countries would also make this concession if the safe conduct was forthcoming.
Still, the de facto government announced yesterday that Zelaya was free to seek "territorial political asylum" but that it could not be in any Central American country, and he would first have to sign a piece of paper acknowledging, among other things, that Congress had removed him from office. Milton Mateo, a spokesperson for the de facto Foreign Minister, Carlos Lopez Contreras, told the AP that:
"It has been decided at the highest level of government: it will be a territorial asylum and cannot be in any country touching on Honduras, that is in Central America."The reason they want him to seek political asylum is that under the Caracas Convention of 1954, someone seeking territorial asylum cannot involve themselves in confrontations with the government in their home country. This would remove Zelaya as a "threat" to the de facto government and let them get their propaganda out.
Peruvian President Alain Garcia immediately suggested that Lobo meet with Zelaya in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa.
"Lobo should talk with Zelaya to find out what terms Zelaya would accept for a recuperation of his political dignity, or at least to give the impression that he knows how to dialogue. To turn your back on him is less democratic"Meanwhile, Porfirio Lobo Sosa, returned to Honduras after visiting the United States. He announced, on return, that he would establish the truth commission called for the the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord, during the first quarter of 2010, as the Accord requires.
In a surprise move, Ricardo Maduro, former president of Honduras, called on Congress to declare a general amnesty for political crimes, including those committed by Zelaya and Micheletti.
"Its a tragedy to leave open the wound, in the sense that constitutional violations can be used by any future government to reopen this wound, to re-separate the Hondurans, and to use it for political persecution, be it against President Zelaya or against President Micheletti and theirs, it appears to me that we need to close now this wound."He called on Congress to do it now.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Zelaya, Lobo Agree To Meet
EFE reports, along with many other sources, that Porfirio Lobo Sosa and Manuel Zelaya Rosales have agreed to meet Monday to try to put an end to the political crisis in Honduras, announced Dominican President Leonel Fernández. The meeting will take place in Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. President Fernández said:
"We hope that with this decision, there will be no difficulty for President Zelaya to leave Honduras and that there won't be any conditions or obstruction on the part of the de facto government so that he can travel to the Dominican Republic.....If the president elect is in agreement to support this dialog, if this is demanded by the international community there should be no impediment."
"We hope that with this decision, there will be no difficulty for President Zelaya to leave Honduras and that there won't be any conditions or obstruction on the part of the de facto government so that he can travel to the Dominican Republic.....If the president elect is in agreement to support this dialog, if this is demanded by the international community there should be no impediment."
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Roadblock
The chaos of information surrounding the trip Manuel Zelaya planned to take to Mexico has settled, and the story is now fairly clear. It is true that Mexico offered, and both Manuel Zelaya and the de facto government of Honduras initially accepted, that Zelaya would leave the Brazilian embassy with a safe conduct (solicited by Mexico, not Zelaya) and then reside in Mexico as an honored guest for some period of time.
Why it fell apart is instructive. It fell apart because Zelaya would not sign a declaration authored by the de facto government. Carlos Lopez Contreras, the de facto Foreign Minister, said
Why is this a roadblock? Porfirio Lobo was given homework by Oscar Arias and Ricardo Martinelli on Tuesday, which included getting Roberto Micheletti to step aside, since it will be fatal to Lobo's case for international recognition for Micheletti to be the one handing over power. Micheletti has more than once said he won't resign until and unless Zelaya also renounces as president. Stalemate.
Why it fell apart is instructive. It fell apart because Zelaya would not sign a declaration authored by the de facto government. Carlos Lopez Contreras, the de facto Foreign Minister, said
"There was an understanding that Zelaya would subscribe to a declaration...that he respected the Guaymuras pact, and respected in a like manner, the decision of the National Congress in the sense that it confirmed the end of his mandate."They want Manuel Zelaya to recognize their authority and give up his claims to authority, to give them legitimacy. He shouldn't, and he won't. As he said last night,
"I could be here 10 years, I have my guitar."Indeed, he played his guitar for those listening to Radio Globo last evening.
Why is this a roadblock? Porfirio Lobo was given homework by Oscar Arias and Ricardo Martinelli on Tuesday, which included getting Roberto Micheletti to step aside, since it will be fatal to Lobo's case for international recognition for Micheletti to be the one handing over power. Micheletti has more than once said he won't resign until and unless Zelaya also renounces as president. Stalemate.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Martinelli Cancelled Lobo's Dominican Trip
Porfirio Lobo Sosa had planned on meeting with the president of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernandez, on Thursday this week, but abruptly announced the cancellation of that trip yesterday. Lobo Sosa told Honduran media today that Ricardo Martinelli, president of Panama, told him the trip was cancelled.
Lobo indicated that he hoped that long before January 27 there would be a government of national unity that was "not of one, or the other", that is neither of Zelaya or Micheletti.
"Martinelli made the decision in light of not having implemented all of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord."Lobo announced last night that after meeting with Arias and Martinelli, he understood that there was no point in continuing his international trips seeking recognition without having complied with the Accord.
Lobo indicated that he hoped that long before January 27 there would be a government of national unity that was "not of one, or the other", that is neither of Zelaya or Micheletti.
Homework for Lobo Sosa
Porifirio Lobo Sosa returned from San Jose, Costa Rica, yesterday after meeting with Presidents Oscar Arias of Costa Rica, and Ricardo Martinelli of Panama, and immediately cancelled his planned trip to the Dominican Republic to lobby its president, Leonel Fernandez, for support.
He came back with homework, assigned by Arias, Martinelli, and Clinton, homework which will help make it more palatable for these three politicians to recognize him as president of Honduras in January, though they claim to speak for all international governments. The three of them made it clear to Lobo Sosa that he needed to accomplish all his homework for the international community to recognize him, but in return, they agreed to lobby for him.
First, he must see to the compliance with all of the steps of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord. This includes the establishment of a government of national unity and reconciliation and the establishment of a truth commission.
Second, there needs to be a general amnesty for events of June 28 and later, an amnesty for political offenses, not criminal ones. This is something that was part of the original San Jose Accord, but both Zelaya and Micheletti felt was unnecessary and thus left out of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord.
Third, that Roberto Micheletti needs to step down now; that it will be hard to get international governments to recognize Lobo Sosa if he takes office from Micheletti.
Arias and Martinelli told him that the government of national unity and reconciliation needs to be formed now, and that the truth commission needs to be formed in the first quarter of 2010. They made it clear that international aid will be conditioned on compliance. Lobo Sosa said on his return:
He came back with homework, assigned by Arias, Martinelli, and Clinton, homework which will help make it more palatable for these three politicians to recognize him as president of Honduras in January, though they claim to speak for all international governments. The three of them made it clear to Lobo Sosa that he needed to accomplish all his homework for the international community to recognize him, but in return, they agreed to lobby for him.
First, he must see to the compliance with all of the steps of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord. This includes the establishment of a government of national unity and reconciliation and the establishment of a truth commission.
Second, there needs to be a general amnesty for events of June 28 and later, an amnesty for political offenses, not criminal ones. This is something that was part of the original San Jose Accord, but both Zelaya and Micheletti felt was unnecessary and thus left out of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord.
Third, that Roberto Micheletti needs to step down now; that it will be hard to get international governments to recognize Lobo Sosa if he takes office from Micheletti.
Arias and Martinelli told him that the government of national unity and reconciliation needs to be formed now, and that the truth commission needs to be formed in the first quarter of 2010. They made it clear that international aid will be conditioned on compliance. Lobo Sosa said on his return:
"We need to resolve this situation because, if not, what will happen is that there is approximately $2,000 million dollars which we won't have acess to, at least not in the first months of next year."
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Costa Rica, Panama Call for Micheletti Resignation
The Presidents of Costa Rica and Panama, in meeting with Porfirio Lobo Sosa in San Jose today, told him that if he wants his government to be recognized on January 27, that he must convince the de facto president, Roberto Micheletti, to resign. Lobo must not receive power from that polemic de facto governor.
Oscar Arias and Ricardo Martinelli are presidents of the only two Central American countries that have agreed to recognize the results of the November 29 Honduran elections.
Oscar Arias and Ricardo Martinelli are presidents of the only two Central American countries that have agreed to recognize the results of the November 29 Honduran elections.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Next Farcical Step
The next farcical step in the ballet choreographed by the State Department is being danced in Honduras. Porfirio Lobo, the president-elect in the election of last Sunday, called on Roberto Micheletti Bain to form a government of national unity and reconciliation, as the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord called for a month ago. Lobo said this government should be formed independently. Lobo said that this was vital for his recognition.
Lobo said he understood that there were different opinions circulating about the accord, like that of Ricardo Lagos, but that that was normal, and that all parties should press forward to comply with the agreement.
"With the decision of Congress, we are complying with the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord...and pending is the formation of a government of a government of reconciliation and the truth commission."
Tiempo perceives Lobo as asking Micheletti to conform the government, but there is ambiguity in the reporting over just who Lobo thinks should form the government, and be part of it. What is clear is that Lobo does not believe Zelaya himself should be part of the government, since he said after the election "Zelaya is history".
Lobo said he understood that there were different opinions circulating about the accord, like that of Ricardo Lagos, but that that was normal, and that all parties should press forward to comply with the agreement.
"With the decision of Congress, we are complying with the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord...and pending is the formation of a government of a government of reconciliation and the truth commission."
Tiempo perceives Lobo as asking Micheletti to conform the government, but there is ambiguity in the reporting over just who Lobo thinks should form the government, and be part of it. What is clear is that Lobo does not believe Zelaya himself should be part of the government, since he said after the election "Zelaya is history".
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Porfirio Lobo Visit To Colombia Cancelled
Porfirio Lobo Sosa, the Nationalist candidate for President, and his party's candidate for Mayor of Tegucigalpa, Ricardo Alvarez, were scheduled to leave Honduras during the height of the campaign to meet with politicians in Colombia, or so reports CM&, a Colombian TV station and website.
Lobo Sosa was invited by Colombian Senator Jairo Clopatofsky, and they had appointments with the Mayor of Bogotá, Samuel Moreno, and the head of the police, General Oscar Naranjo. However, Colombian President Uribe, when asked to grant them an audience, thought it might exacerbate relations, already tense, with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and so told Clopatofsky, "the best thing would be to wait until he is President-elect to receive Señor Pepe."
Lobo Sosa and Alvarez were due to arrive in Bogotá Wednesday.
Lobo Sosa was invited by Colombian Senator Jairo Clopatofsky, and they had appointments with the Mayor of Bogotá, Samuel Moreno, and the head of the police, General Oscar Naranjo. However, Colombian President Uribe, when asked to grant them an audience, thought it might exacerbate relations, already tense, with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and so told Clopatofsky, "the best thing would be to wait until he is President-elect to receive Señor Pepe."
Lobo Sosa and Alvarez were due to arrive in Bogotá Wednesday.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Rescind Delay
There is a struggle in Honduras about how to rescind the de facto government's decree removing constitutional guarantees for 45 days. The struggle is not based on any legal issue, but rather on political considerations.
As Greg Weeks notes in his blog today, the consitution allows congress to reject, ammend/modify, or approve of such decrees, and notes that they simply go out of effect should the conditions that caused them to be issued (which must be specified in the decree) cease to exist. So, Congress could have dealt with it yesterday.
Micheletti himself, via a new decree from his council of Ministers, could nullify it. Manuel Zelaya used this technique to comply with the lower court order regarding the Cuarta Urna original decree. Its completely legal and simple.
However, yesterday Congress refused to deal with rejecting the decree even though they told Micheletti it would not pass and Micheletti said he would talk to the Supreme Court and the Presidential candidates about rescinding it. Why?
First, there's the simple need of Micheletti to delay things. He delayed the OAS ministers visit by more than a week; its now scheduled for October 7. He wants this election to take place under his administration, so any delay is a good delay. I think this is his only motivation for asking the Supreme Court how to rescind it. There's no legal impediment to him doing it today, if he wants to do it. The cost, however, politically is enormous. As El Pais notes "the mask is off." In their lead, they see Congress as having "corrected" Micheletti.
Why doesn't Congress rescind it, since they told Micheletti yesterday that it would not pass if it came up for a vote. The reasons here are political. Both Porfirio Lobo (Nationalist Party presidential candidate) and Jose Angel Saavedra (President of Congress) have indicated there is near universal agreement that the limitations on speech and personal liberty are improper and unsupportable. Neither contributes to transparent elections, and both said this yesterday.
Elvin Santos (Liberal Party presidential candidate) noted that in talking with Micheletti, they provided him with several alternative decrees that still accomplished his goal of restricting opposition access to the media.
Congress itself could reject, or ammend the decree right now. However, Saavedra noted that there were divisions within Congress regarding the other consitutional restrictictions in the decree, and the political cost of bringing those divisions to light could damage the coalition that supports the coup.
So expect delay from everyone about rescinding the decree, which is not law, but is being enforced because it has successfully stopped the over the air broadcasts of Channel 36 and Radio Globo.
As Greg Weeks notes in his blog today, the consitution allows congress to reject, ammend/modify, or approve of such decrees, and notes that they simply go out of effect should the conditions that caused them to be issued (which must be specified in the decree) cease to exist. So, Congress could have dealt with it yesterday.
Micheletti himself, via a new decree from his council of Ministers, could nullify it. Manuel Zelaya used this technique to comply with the lower court order regarding the Cuarta Urna original decree. Its completely legal and simple.
However, yesterday Congress refused to deal with rejecting the decree even though they told Micheletti it would not pass and Micheletti said he would talk to the Supreme Court and the Presidential candidates about rescinding it. Why?
First, there's the simple need of Micheletti to delay things. He delayed the OAS ministers visit by more than a week; its now scheduled for October 7. He wants this election to take place under his administration, so any delay is a good delay. I think this is his only motivation for asking the Supreme Court how to rescind it. There's no legal impediment to him doing it today, if he wants to do it. The cost, however, politically is enormous. As El Pais notes "the mask is off." In their lead, they see Congress as having "corrected" Micheletti.
Why doesn't Congress rescind it, since they told Micheletti yesterday that it would not pass if it came up for a vote. The reasons here are political. Both Porfirio Lobo (Nationalist Party presidential candidate) and Jose Angel Saavedra (President of Congress) have indicated there is near universal agreement that the limitations on speech and personal liberty are improper and unsupportable. Neither contributes to transparent elections, and both said this yesterday.
Elvin Santos (Liberal Party presidential candidate) noted that in talking with Micheletti, they provided him with several alternative decrees that still accomplished his goal of restricting opposition access to the media.
Congress itself could reject, or ammend the decree right now. However, Saavedra noted that there were divisions within Congress regarding the other consitutional restrictictions in the decree, and the political cost of bringing those divisions to light could damage the coalition that supports the coup.
So expect delay from everyone about rescinding the decree, which is not law, but is being enforced because it has successfully stopped the over the air broadcasts of Channel 36 and Radio Globo.
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