Micheletti has no intention of leaving the stage

As we noted in the previous post, Roberto Micheletti has now been given an extra-constitutional lifetime appointment as congress member. This brings with it a shiny gold medal, as well as income, without the strain of actually being elected. What else it brings remains to be seen.

Not in question now, though, is whether Micheletti will recede from view in order to allow international powers to legitimate the Porfirio Lobo government. Indeed, Micheletti thinks perhaps he should speak to the congress on January 25.

As it turns out, he has a lot to say.

An article published today by Proceso Digital reporting remarks Micheletti made on Canal 10 quotes him as accusing Oscar Arias of being "disrespectful" of Honduras:

each time that he speaks it is to offend my country, it seems that he has a complex to believe that we are a slavish nation where anyone that wants can order us around; we Hondurans are not his slaves

Micheletti reportedly said.

Micheletti assured the listening public that he would not even ask for a special leave of absence for the period of the inauguration, as that, he says, would violate the constitution:

I am not going to step aside, nor am I going to ask permission to step aside temporarily, that is not possible because that would be to violate the constitution, I will do what I have announced previously, I will watch the passage of power from the Casa de Gobierno and in the moment in which Porfirio Lobo is imposed as president, I will get up and go to my house with my family.

Micheletti said that he intends to participate in the first session of the new congress on January 25: there I will give my report on the situation of the country because it is a constitutional duty.

Micheletti also explained that it was Jose Miguel Insulza's fault that things got chilly with the OAS:

he committed to respect the will of the Hondurans, he promised that this matter (the political crisis) was going to be resolved by the Hondurans and he would support that, but when he returned with the chancellors to the country, he came simply to try to impose the idea that we should return Zelaya to power, and that we could not accept because it was a falsehood that he had told us in our private meeting

Lobo Sosa should be gratified to hear that Micheletti does support his intention to renew international relations because in Micheletti's opinion "we should support it and respect it because the space of Honduras has to be opened to the world".

Not that Micheletti has in mind the same thing you or I might imagine. He is talking about economic ties with China, and other potential sources of employment. Apparently, something has caused the economic situation to deteriorate over the last six months. So Pepe has his work cut out for him.

Micheletti was happy to give a shout out to his friends in need:

He said that on the level of countries he is gratified with the aid given during the crisis by nations like Taiwan, Japan and the same United States, which did not stop aiding the nation in the projects already underway. Despite the restrictions given by their governments, the cooperation in projects under execution never stopped and for this he had to thank them, he noted.

Indeed. No sanctions here, folks, move along, nothing to see...

And of course, he thanked the governments of Colombia and Panama, "who when we resorted to ask their advice never denied us, they were an important support and I thank Panama and its president for the petition made in the OAS so that our country can return to that regional venue".

And finally, Micheletti is willing to kiss and make up with the US:

they have committed many errors, but the US people deserve our affection and respect. The clauses for which they take away visas, I don't meet those requirements, and if they determine that some day they are going to return it to me, congratulations, because I have not committed any crime nor am I delinquent.

Such a gentle nature. So wronged, and yet so forgiving.

OAS: No Election Observers

While the Honduran press is full of Micheletti's calls for Zelaya to return to the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord that Micheletti willfully burlesqued, the Secretary General of the OAS, José Miguel Insulza, sees little or no hope that there will be a return to dialog, and has said the OAS will not send election observers unless there is a radical change in the situation.

"It is difficult for the Congress to rule on the restitution of Zelaya...any solution will have to come from decisions of the Honduran nation and the Congress to rule on the issue of the restitution of Zelaya."

While Lanny Davis fiddles for his fascist masters in a Wall Street Journal editorial, Miguel Insulza correctly notes that the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord was broken when Micheletti tried to form a government of national unity without the participation of Zelaya. This past Sunday, after Zelaya declared the accord dead, Micheletti offered to let Zelaya participate in the unity government, but remained adamant that he, Micheletti, would lead it.

Micheletti's response was to issue an 8 point communique Sunday that demanded that the international community send election observers (they aren't going to), remove all sanctions and restore foreign aid (which will continue frozen until there is full compliance with the accord) and stop interfering in the internal affairs of Honduras.

Other than the recognition which Thomas Shannon has guaranteed the de facto government, no government in the Hemisphere is likely to recognize the results of the November 29 elections if held under the current conditions. Honduras will remain diplomatically, and economically isolated.

El Heraldo, in its Minute by Minute column is busy trumpeting all the individual observers from other countries that will come and observe the election. The Election Tribunal has issued a statement that they had been expecting 3000 international observers, but now they expect only 300-400. This they are making into a virtue because that's all the observers they have the budget to support, which is because the international teams have pulled not only their observers, but their funding as well. Most of these observers will be Central American businessmen.

The Verification Commission speaks

A press conference held by the members of the Verification Commission today, reported by the El Salvadoran website Telecinco, gives some insight into what we can expect of the next phase of the unfolding implementation of the Tegucigalpa Accord.

Headlined, "The differences in Honduras continue hours from the due date for the Government of Unity", the article starts "The differences and unknowns about the application of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord in Honduras continue today a few hours before the due date established by the pact to comply with the installation of a Government of National Unity."

It then characterizes Hilda Solis, Ricardo Lagos, Jorge Reina and Arturo Corrales as "optimistic".

So what are they optimistic about?

Lagos is quoted as saying "I want to point out that the verification of the distinct stages of this accord is a complex and difficult theme."

According to the article, Lagos and Solis, the representatives of the international community, met with President Zelaya, and "other political actors of the country, among them five of the six presidential candidates... as well as representatives of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal" and unnamed members of Congress.

The report notes that after also meeting with Micheletti, Lagos "indicated that the de facto president was disposed to renounce presiding over the Government of National Unity."

He continued that Micheletti "understands that the constitution and installation of a Government of National Unity probably would be strengthened if he understands that he is in a position to resign the responsibilities that he holds."

The article rehearses the confusing statements made by many parties about whether the restoration of Zelaya is or is not required, is or is not supported. Jorge Reina, President Zelaya's representative on the commission, said that Zelaya does not have to follow through on a threat to withdraw his support from the Accord if not restored by tomorrow's deadline for the new unity government, "because we have perceived the will as well of the international community to support us".

Yet Micheletti is quoted as protesting José Miguel Insulza's statement that "the only exit to peace" is via restoral of President Zelaya.

"We are concerned that these declarations could be considered an interference in a still fragile process of resolution of the crisis that is unfolding in our country", Vilma Morales, the member of the commission representing Micheletti, wrote to Insulza.

Meanwhile, the Mexican Cronica de Hoy reported that the commissioners announced that the National Reconciliation Cabinet would be named tomorrow, "as the Tegucigalpa Accord established". This press report says that the cabinet "was designated both by the side of the overthrown president Manuel Zelaya as well as by the de facto government".

Reportedly, the Verification Commission also met with the general secretary of Congress, Ramón Velasquez, who was quoted as saying "They can not influence the determinations that the Hondurans are going to take, so that we have not spoken of the restitution or not of Zelaya".

A number of news media have interpreted statements by Lagos and Solis that the resolution of the conflict must take place "step by step" and that they are now working on the unity cabinet as a rejection of an interpretation that calls for Congress to reach a decision about the restoral of Zelaya, although when read in context, these statements do not actually respond to questions about that point.

Nonetheless, it is clear that what is occupying the commissioners at the moment is the Cabinet. Even here, though, they are taking a hands-off attitude that sees that decision as the business of the Honduran parties to the conflict. The Spanish El Economista quotes Ricardo Lagos as saying

We point out the need to constitute and install a government of unity and reconciliation, in accord with the terms of the commitment subscribed to the 30th of October...The way to advance in this government of national unity is incumbent on the parties that signed the accord...It is they that are going to work

The pro-coup La Tribuna of Honduras, predictably, departs from the consensus reporting, quoting Hilda Solis at more length in a passage that suggests the formation of the Cabinet might take more time:

everything will take its time, we do not have either the hour nor the date, but we are doing what is possible for those persons that are working on the plan to succeed in this plan, there are various persons that are talking, there are names, but we are still beginning.

Solis is quoted as saying that Micheletti "made it clear that he would be disposed to step aside".

According to this report, after reiterating that there is no specific deadline, Solis acknowledged she was returning to the US and said that when she returned

I would like to find that the National Congress will comply with the accord.

So would we. But we think it might need a bit more than the statements reported today.

Insulza Points A Finger

El Universal, a Venezuelan newspaper, citing a EFE wire story, reports this evening that José Miguel Insulza, OAS President, lamented that the de facto government of Honduras introduced a proposal that was not in conformance with the San Jose Accord and in this manner, "made impossible a good result" in the dialogue to resolve the crisis in Honduras.

"One of the parties presented a proposal that included a point not included in the San Jose Accord, which seeks to force the legitimacy of what happened on June 28. This act make a good outcome in the dialog impossible."

Insulza noted that dialogue "is the only way to reach peace and harmony among Hondurans."

Insulza will address the permanent council of the OAS tomorrow morning at 10:30 AM EDT concerning the situation in Honduras.

Talks Hit A Speedbump

Oscar Arias announced today that he had no intention of going to Honduras to negotiate a solution to the political crisis any time soon. He said he spoke with President Jimmy Carter, and he wasn't inclined to go either. Arias said that the OAS ministers needed to do the preparatory work before it would be worthwhile for him to come to Honduras. Roberto Micheletti had announced last evening that Oscar Arias and Juan Carlos Varela, Panamanian Vice President, would come to negotiate, and that he preferred to negotiate with them before the arrival of the OAS delegation.

In other news, the OAS announced that there was no date yet for their group of Ministers to visit Honduras. Oscar Arias told the Associated Press that the de facto government told the OAS that they would not be welcome any time before next week. José Miguel Insulza said "We'll come in the next few days," but he indicated there were difficulties. "The communications are terrible, there are no flights, and the roads closed," Insulza indicated. He also noted that he hoped that the preperatory group could arrive either today or tomorrow to prepare for the mission.

UPDATE 4:00 PM PDT: Oscar Arias, in an interview with Telesur, said that the intransigence of Roberto Micheletti on the issue of returning power to Manuel Zelaya, is the obstacle that is keeping there from being any advances in the negotiations for a solution to the crisis in Honduas. "There is no possibility that they will admit the restitution of Zelaya before the elections (of November)."

Arias further said that the Micheletti government is blocking the arrival of the OAS foreign ministers. He said the OAS was told that the ministers would not be allowed to enter the country.

An Interview with President Zelaya

La Jornada de Mexico has the first published coverage available on the internet from the recent interview with Zelaya at the Brazilian embassy.

Possibly the biggest news item in the press interview is Zelaya's statement that OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza will travel to Honduras to mediate face-to-face talks.

Yo he regresado con el fin de buscar un arreglo pacífico de frente, para que el diálogo sea en mi propia tierra y en mi propio pueblo.

I have returned with the purpose of seeking a peaceful arrangement face to face, so that the dialogue will be in my own country and among my own people

Las fuerzas armadas deben apuntar sus rifles a los enemigos del pueblo y no contra el pueblo

The Armed Forces should point their rifles at the enemies of the people and not against the people

While the US State Department may have preferred him to stay out of Honduras and wait for non-existent progress in the moribund Arias mediated "negotiations", Zelaya makes an important claim here: even the worst coup apologists have had to admit his expulsion from the country was a constitutional violation.

The Supreme Court order for his detention June 28 actually was based on a claim he was a flight risk. Pro-coup apologists delight in claiming that President Zelaya cannot return because he would be arrested on both this order and a trumped-up list of 18 "charges" since the de facto regime was installed. But this ignores his actual desire to return to the country, where he would have the right to due legal process and to fight the charges against him, which many constitutional law professors have argued are procedurally and factually flawed. As noted here, the Supreme Court had not yet arrived at the point of trying, much less convicting, Zelaya, and while there were administrative charges that could be argued to have some basis, representing these administrative issues as the basis of charges of "treason" was overwrought.

The amnesty provision in the San Jose Accord is as much, or more, about protecting the coup architects from prosecution.

With Zelaya back in the country, negotiations could proceed without the baggage of that proposal, which gave away so much to the coup regime that it hardly made sense for Zelaya to agree to it. His presence in national territory allows for the participation of civil society in ensuring that there are negotiations; it raises the pressure on the Armed Forces, which desperately wants not to be smeared by their participation in the coup; and it may open a way for the factions within the coup and de facto regime that have tried to open up some breathing room to move more decisively away from Micheletti.

Unified Messaging

An unconfirmed report on Radio Globo just now indicates that the pro-coup media were assembled and informed of the unified messaging that was to be communicated during the visit of the Interamerican Human Rights Commission next week, and when the OAS Commission arrives after them. The main points:

(1) There is no crisis, just a political situation

(2) There is no polarization; there are only disagreements.

(3) When they are asked why José Miguel Insulza will not be allowed to visit with the rest of the OAS commission, they should say that its because there is an assassination plot against him by Venezuelans in the country.

Did I mention that yesterday, even as his San Jose negotiating committee was meeting with Insulza in Washington, D.C., Micheletti was a again stating that Insulza would not be allowed to visit as an official part of the OAS commission, but "only if he wants to visit as a tourist".